Output from detroit1.sas
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Output from detroit1.sas |
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Predicting Detroit homicide rates 1
YEAR POLICE UNEMP MFG_WRK GUN_LIC GUN_REG H_ARREST W_MALE NMFG_WRK
1961 260.35 11.0 455.5 178.15 215.98 93.4 558724 538.1 1962 269.80 7.0 480.2 156.41 180.48 88.5 538584 547.6 1963 272.04 5.2 506.1 198.02 209.57 94.4 519171 562.8 1964 272.96 4.3 535.8 222.10 231.67 92.0 500457 591.0 1965 272.51 3.5 576.0 301.92 297.65 91.0 482418 626.1 1966 261.34 3.2 601.7 391.22 367.62 87.4 465029 659.8 1967 268.89 4.1 577.3 665.56 616.54 88.3 448267 686.2 1968 295.99 3.9 596.9 1131.21 1029.75 86.1 432109 699.6 1969 319.87 3.6 613.5 837.60 786.23 79.0 416533 729.9 1970 341.43 7.1 569.3 794.90 713.77 73.9 401518 757.8 1971 356.59 8.4 548.8 817.74 750.43 63.4 387046 755.3 1972 376.69 7.7 563.4 583.17 1027.38 62.5 373095 787.0 1973 390.19 6.3 609.3 709.59 666.50 58.9 359647 819.8
YEAR GOV_WRK H_EARN W_EARN HOMICIDE ACC ASSAULTS YR
1961 133.9 2.98 117.18 8.60 39.17 306.18 1 1962 137.6 3.09 134.02 8.90 40.27 315.16 2 1963 143.6 3.23 141.68 8.52 45.31 277.53 3 1964 150.3 3.33 147.98 8.89 49.51 234.07 4 1965 164.3 3.46 159.85 13.07 55.05 230.84 5 1966 179.5 3.60 157.19 14.57 53.90 217.99 6 1967 187.5 3.73 155.29 21.36 50.62 286.11 7 1968 195.4 2.91 131.75 28.03 51.47 291.59 8 1969 210.3 4.25 178.74 31.49 49.16 320.39 9 1970 223.8 4.47 178.30 37.39 45.80 323.03 10 1971 227.7 5.04 209.54 46.26 44.54 357.38 11 1972 230.9 5.47 240.05 47.24 41.03 422.07 12 1973 230.2 5.76 258.05 52.33 44.17 473.01 13
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 2
Correlation Analysis
13 'VAR' Variables: HOMICIDE POLICE UNEMP MFG_WRK GUN_LIC GUN_REG H_ARREST
W_MALE NMFG_WRK GOV_WRK H_EARN W_EARN YEAR
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 3
Correlation Analysis
Pearson Correlation Coefficients / N = 13
HOMICIDE POLICE UNEMP MFG_WRK HOMICIDE 1.00000 0.96406 0.21014 0.54642 Homicides per 100,000 of pop POLICE 0.96406 1.00000 0.29255 0.41829 Full-time police per 100,000 pop UNEMP 0.21014 0.29255 1.00000 -0.65172 % unemployed in the pop MFG_WRK 0.54642 0.41829 -0.65172 1.00000 Manufacturing workers (000) GUN_LIC 0.72631 0.56853 -0.16710 0.69829 Handgun licences per 100,000 pop GUN_REG 0.81629 0.70237 -0.03287 0.62778 Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop H_ARREST -0.96846 -0.97426 -0.30566 -0.42929 % homicides cleared by arrests W_MALE -0.95257 -0.88394 0.07312 -0.75282 White males in the population NMFG_WRK 0.95593 0.88182 -0.03895 0.75034 Non-manufacturing workers (000) GOV_WRK 0.95805 0.87931 0.00751 0.70977 Government workers (000) H_EARN 0.91341 0.93651 0.23081 0.45366 Average hourly earnings W_EARN 0.88815 0.92225 0.13128 0.50234 Average weekly earnings YEAR 0.96748 0.90803 -0.02358 0.72167
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 4
Correlation Analysis
Pearson Correlation Coefficients / N = 13
GUN_LIC GUN_REG H_ARREST W_MALE HOMICIDE 0.72631 0.81629 -0.96846 -0.95257 Homicides per 100,000 of pop POLICE 0.56853 0.70237 -0.97426 -0.88394 Full-time police per 100,000 pop UNEMP -0.16710 -0.03287 -0.30566 0.07312 % unemployed in the pop MFG_WRK 0.69829 0.62778 -0.42929 -0.75282 Manufacturing workers (000) GUN_LIC 1.00000 0.90380 -0.55485 -0.78368 Handgun licences per 100,000 pop GUN_REG 0.90380 1.00000 -0.68316 -0.84584 Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop H_ARREST -0.55485 -0.68316 1.00000 0.89056 % homicides cleared by arrests W_MALE -0.78368 -0.84584 0.89056 1.00000 White males in the population NMFG_WRK 0.78487 0.84329 -0.89160 -0.99426 Non-manufacturing workers (000) GOV_WRK 0.80371 0.86243 -0.89344 -0.98857 Government workers (000) H_EARN 0.42167 0.57352 -0.95743 -0.86675 Average hourly earnings W_EARN 0.39101 0.55590 -0.93628 -0.86032 Average weekly earnings YEAR 0.76628 0.83840 -0.91378 -0.99816
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 5
Correlation Analysis
Pearson Correlation Coefficients / N = 13
NMFG_WRK GOV_WRK H_EARN W_EARN HOMICIDE 0.95593 0.95805 0.91341 0.88815 Homicides per 100,000 of pop POLICE 0.88182 0.87931 0.93651 0.92225 Full-time police per 100,000 pop UNEMP -0.03895 0.00751 0.23081 0.13128 % unemployed in the pop MFG_WRK 0.75034 0.70977 0.45366 0.50234 Manufacturing workers (000) GUN_LIC 0.78487 0.80371 0.42167 0.39101 Handgun licences per 100,000 pop GUN_REG 0.84329 0.86243 0.57352 0.55590 Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop H_ARREST -0.89160 -0.89344 -0.95743 -0.93628 % homicides cleared by arrests W_MALE -0.99426 -0.98857 -0.86675 -0.86032 White males in the population NMFG_WRK 1.00000 0.99004 0.86951 0.85557 Non-manufacturing workers (000) GOV_WRK 0.99004 1.00000 0.85729 0.82643 Government workers (000) H_EARN 0.86951 0.85729 1.00000 0.98276 Average hourly earnings W_EARN 0.85557 0.82643 0.98276 1.00000 Average weekly earnings YEAR 0.99456 0.98745 0.88841 0.88092
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 6
Correlation Analysis
Pearson Correlation Coefficients / N = 13
YEAR HOMICIDE 0.96748 Homicides per 100,000 of pop POLICE 0.90803 Full-time police per 100,000 pop UNEMP -0.02358 % unemployed in the pop MFG_WRK 0.72167 Manufacturing workers (000) GUN_LIC 0.76628 Handgun licences per 100,000 pop GUN_REG 0.83840 Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop H_ARREST -0.91378 % homicides cleared by arrests W_MALE -0.99816 White males in the population NMFG_WRK 0.99456 Non-manufacturing workers (000) GOV_WRK 0.98745 Government workers (000) H_EARN 0.88841 Average hourly earnings W_EARN 0.88092 Average weekly earnings YEAR 1.00000
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 7
Plot of HOMICIDE*POLICE=YR. Plot of HOMICIDE*UNEMP=YR.
HOMICIDE | HOMICIDE |
60 + 60 +
| |
| 1 | 1
| 1 1 | 11
| |
40 + 40 +
| 1 | 1
| 9 | 9
| 8 | 8
| |
20 + 7 20 + 7
| 6 | 6
| 5 | 5
| 1 2 | 43 2 1
| |
0 + 0 +
--+--------+--------+--------+- --+--------+--------+--------+-
250 300 350 400 0 5 10 15
POLICE % unemployed in the pop
NOTE: 2 obs hidden.
Plot of HOMICIDE*MFG_WRK=YR. Plot of HOMICIDE*GUN_LIC=YR.
HOMICIDE | HOMICIDE |
60 + 60 +
| |
| 1 | 1
| 1 1 | 1 1
| |
40 + 40 +
| 1 | 1
| 9 | 9
| 8 | 8
| |
20 + 7 20 + 7
| 6 | 6
| 5 | 5
| 1 2 3 4 | 13
| |
0 + 0 +
--+--------+--------+--------+- --+--------+--------+--------+-
400 500 600 700 0 500 1000 1500
Manufacturing workers (000) GUN_LIC
NOTE: 2 obs hidden.
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 8
Plot of HOMICIDE*GUN_REG=YR. Plot of HOMICIDE*H_ARREST=YR.
HOMICIDE | HOMICIDE |
60 + 60 +
| |
| 1 | 1
| 1 1 | 11
| |
40 + 40 +
| 1 | 1
| 9 | 9
| 8 | 8
| |
20 + 7 20 + 7
| 6 | 6
| 5 | 5
| 21 | 241
| |
0 + 0 +
--+--------+--------+--------+- --+--------+--------+--------+-
0 500 1000 1500 40 60 80 100
GUN_REG % homicides cleared by arrests
NOTE: 2 obs hidden. NOTE: 1 obs hidden.
Plot of HOMICIDE*W_MALE=YR. Plot of HOMICIDE*NMFG_WRK=YR.
HOMICIDE | HOMICIDE |
60 + 60 +
| |
| 1 | 1
| 11 | 11
| |
40 + 40 +
| 1 | 1
| 9 | 9
| 8 | 8
| |
20 + 7 20 + 7
| 6 | 6
| 5 | 5
| 4 32 1 | 12 4
| |
0 + 0 +
--+--------+--------+--------+- --+--------+--------+--------+-
300000 400000 500000 600000 400 600 800 1000
White males in the population NMFG_WRK
NOTE: 1 obs hidden.
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 9
Plot of HOMICIDE*GOV_WRK=YR. Plot of HOMICIDE*H_EARN=YR.
HOMICIDE | HOMICIDE |
60 + 60 +
| |
| 1 | 1
| 11 | 1 1
| |
40 + 40 +
| 1 | 1
| 9 | 9
| 8 | 8
| |
20 + 7 20 + 7
| 6 | 6
| 5 | 5
| 1234 | 123
| |
0 + 0 +
--+--------+--------+--------+- -+-------------+-------------+-
100 150 200 250 2 4 6
Government workers (000) Average hourly earnings
NOTE: 1 obs hidden.
Plot of HOMICIDE*W_EARN=YR.
HOMICIDE |
60 +
|
| 1
| 1 1
|
40 +
| 1
| 9
| 8
|
20 + 7
| 6
| 5
| 1 234
|
0 +
-+-------------+-------------+-
100 200 300
Average weekly earnings
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 10
Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: HOMICIDE Homicides per 100,000 of pop
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F
Model 11 3221.69980 292.88180 3258.874 0.0137
Error 1 0.08987 0.08987
C Total 12 3221.78968
Root MSE 0.29979 R-square 1.0000
Dep Mean 25.12692 Adj R-sq 0.9997
C.V. 1.19309
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0: Variance
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| Inflation
INTERCEP 1 -91.525694 31.84848803 -2.874 0.2132 0.00000000 POLICE 1 0.024097 0.01054638 2.285 0.2626 32.54401319 UNEMP 1 0.572489 0.19256088 2.973 0.2066 27.55609936 MFG_WRK 1 -0.058597 0.01625916 -3.604 0.1723 87.61885196 GUN_LIC 1 0.021369 0.00172143 12.414 0.0512 39.61397352 GUN_REG 1 -0.003336 0.00127947 -2.607 0.2332 21.14579384 H_ARREST 1 -0.082724 0.06161572 -1.343 0.4076 81.23699884 W_MALE 1 0.000090045 0.00004012 2.244 0.2668 896.05610311 NMFG_WRK 1 0.049643 0.01723305 2.881 0.2127 356.16678462 GOV_WRK 1 0.181208 0.06083004 2.979 0.2062 677.71187761 H_EARN 1 -6.096462 1.89185727 -3.222 0.1916 446.46735301 W_EARN 1 0.305224 0.05236046 5.829 0.1082 661.56232242
Variable Variable DF Label
INTERCEP 1 Intercept POLICE 1 Full-time police per 100,000 pop UNEMP 1 % unemployed in the pop MFG_WRK 1 Manufacturing workers (000) GUN_LIC 1 Handgun licences per 100,000 pop GUN_REG 1 Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop H_ARREST 1 % homicides cleared by arrests W_MALE 1 White males in the population NMFG_WRK 1 Non-manufacturing workers (000) GOV_WRK 1 Government workers (000) H_EARN 1 Average hourly earnings W_EARN 1 Average weekly earnings
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 11
Collinearity Diagnostics(intercept adjusted)
Condition Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop
Number Eigenvalue Index POLICE UNEMP MFG_WRK GUN_LIC GUN_REG
1 8.03658 1.00000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0005
2 1.91767 2.04715 0.0009 0.0081 0.0014 0.0011 0.0006
3 0.80432 3.16097 0.0000 0.0085 0.0008 0.0088 0.0131
4 0.10062 8.93698 0.0204 0.0479 0.0119 0.0198 0.2150
5 0.06733 10.92557 0.1463 0.0451 0.0072 0.0809 0.1182
6 0.03070 16.17954 0.0638 0.1472 0.1502 0.0010 0.0217
7 0.01960 20.24943 0.4962 0.0086 0.0002 0.0307 0.0122
8 0.01471 23.37579 0.1110 0.0032 0.0139 0.3814 0.0006
9 0.00563 37.76605 0.0867 0.0280 0.0688 0.0363 0.1034
10 0.00245 57.22731 0.0011 0.3961 0.1090 0.0362 0.0340
11 0.0003899 143.55925 0.0732 0.3072 0.6366 0.4036 0.4806
Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Number H_ARREST W_MALE NMFG_WRK GOV_WRK H_EARN W_EARN
1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
2 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000
3 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0003
4 0.0001 0.0000 0.0012 0.0008 0.0001 0.0008
5 0.0103 0.0000 0.0013 0.0010 0.0011 0.0000
6 0.0006 0.0032 0.0000 0.0096 0.0048 0.0019
7 0.3390 0.0004 0.0057 0.0019 0.0004 0.0027
8 0.1547 0.0002 0.0002 0.0150 0.0274 0.0192
9 0.0060 0.0641 0.0853 0.0181 0.1169 0.0173
10 0.1698 0.0664 0.6264 0.0532 0.0278 0.0605
11 0.3190 0.8656 0.2798 0.9004 0.8211 0.8973
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 12
Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: HOMICIDE Homicides per 100,000 of pop
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F
Model 7 3219.86623 459.98089 1195.723 0.0001
Error 5 1.92344 0.38469
C Total 12 3221.78968
Root MSE 0.62023 R-square 0.9994
Dep Mean 25.12692 Adj R-sq 0.9986
C.V. 2.46840
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0: Variance
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| Inflation
INTERCEP 1 -22.863251 15.61706309 -1.464 0.2031 0.00000000 POLICE 1 0.041112 0.02030634 2.025 0.0988 28.18664766 UNEMP 1 1.041184 0.17070791 6.099 0.0017 5.05946558 GUN_LIC 1 0.019017 0.00271558 7.003 0.0009 23.03098522 GUN_REG 1 0.000636 0.00162725 0.391 0.7118 7.99080589 H_ARREST 1 -0.211423 0.09707683 -2.178 0.0813 47.11049939 EARN 1 0.300136 0.06127498 4.898 0.0045 55.30799884 WORK 1 0.021166 0.01758096 1.204 0.2825 31.59438968
Variable Variable DF Label
INTERCEP 1 Intercept POLICE 1 Full-time police per 100,000 pop UNEMP 1 % unemployed in the pop GUN_LIC 1 Handgun licences per 100,000 pop GUN_REG 1 Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop H_ARREST 1 % homicides cleared by arrests EARN 1 WORK 1
Predicting Detroit homicide rates 13
Collinearity Diagnostics(intercept adjusted)
Condition Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop Var Prop
Number Eigenvalue Index POLICE UNEMP GUN_LIC GUN_REG H_ARREST
1 4.77085 1.00000 0.0014 0.0001 0.0011 0.0041 0.0008
2 1.40695 1.84144 0.0015 0.0778 0.0048 0.0053 0.0010
3 0.66245 2.68363 0.0005 0.0937 0.0150 0.0323 0.0005
4 0.08536 7.47580 0.0000 0.0209 0.1403 0.8786 0.0066
5 0.04705 10.06965 0.3540 0.3700 0.0330 0.0156 0.0001
6 0.01802 16.26925 0.4404 0.2922 0.0234 0.0302 0.6640
7 0.00931 22.63627 0.2022 0.1454 0.7823 0.0339 0.3271
Var Prop Var Prop Number EARN WORK
1 0.0006 0.0012
2 0.0007 0.0012
3 0.0065 0.0012
4 0.0052 0.0241
5 0.0091 0.2535
6 0.0001 0.3014
7 0.9779 0.4173