Output from detroit1.sas	Source 0 Graphs

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         1

 YEAR   POLICE   UNEMP   MFG_WRK   GUN_LIC   GUN_REG   H_ARREST   W_MALE   NMFG_WRK

 1961   260.35    11.0    455.5     178.15    215.98     93.4     558724     538.1
 1962   269.80     7.0    480.2     156.41    180.48     88.5     538584     547.6
 1963   272.04     5.2    506.1     198.02    209.57     94.4     519171     562.8
 1964   272.96     4.3    535.8     222.10    231.67     92.0     500457     591.0
 1965   272.51     3.5    576.0     301.92    297.65     91.0     482418     626.1
 1966   261.34     3.2    601.7     391.22    367.62     87.4     465029     659.8
 1967   268.89     4.1    577.3     665.56    616.54     88.3     448267     686.2
 1968   295.99     3.9    596.9    1131.21   1029.75     86.1     432109     699.6
 1969   319.87     3.6    613.5     837.60    786.23     79.0     416533     729.9
 1970   341.43     7.1    569.3     794.90    713.77     73.9     401518     757.8
 1971   356.59     8.4    548.8     817.74    750.43     63.4     387046     755.3
 1972   376.69     7.7    563.4     583.17   1027.38     62.5     373095     787.0
 1973   390.19     6.3    609.3     709.59    666.50     58.9     359647     819.8

 YEAR   GOV_WRK    H_EARN    W_EARN    HOMICIDE     ACC     ASSAULTS    YR

 1961    133.9      2.98     117.18       8.60     39.17     306.18      1
 1962    137.6      3.09     134.02       8.90     40.27     315.16      2
 1963    143.6      3.23     141.68       8.52     45.31     277.53      3
 1964    150.3      3.33     147.98       8.89     49.51     234.07      4
 1965    164.3      3.46     159.85      13.07     55.05     230.84      5
 1966    179.5      3.60     157.19      14.57     53.90     217.99      6
 1967    187.5      3.73     155.29      21.36     50.62     286.11      7
 1968    195.4      2.91     131.75      28.03     51.47     291.59      8
 1969    210.3      4.25     178.74      31.49     49.16     320.39      9
 1970    223.8      4.47     178.30      37.39     45.80     323.03     10
 1971    227.7      5.04     209.54      46.26     44.54     357.38     11
 1972    230.9      5.47     240.05      47.24     41.03     422.07     12
 1973    230.2      5.76     258.05      52.33     44.17     473.01     13

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         2

                                Correlation Analysis

  13 'VAR' Variables:  HOMICIDE POLICE   UNEMP    MFG_WRK  GUN_LIC  GUN_REG  H_ARREST
                       W_MALE   NMFG_WRK GOV_WRK  H_EARN   W_EARN   YEAR

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         3

                                Correlation Analysis

                    Pearson Correlation Coefficients  / N = 13

                                         HOMICIDE      POLICE       UNEMP     MFG_WRK

HOMICIDE                                  1.00000     0.96406     0.21014     0.54642
Homicides per 100,000 of pop
POLICE                                    0.96406     1.00000     0.29255     0.41829
Full-time police per 100,000 pop
UNEMP                                     0.21014     0.29255     1.00000    -0.65172
% unemployed in the pop
MFG_WRK                                   0.54642     0.41829    -0.65172     1.00000
Manufacturing workers (000)
GUN_LIC                                   0.72631     0.56853    -0.16710     0.69829
Handgun licences per 100,000 pop
GUN_REG                                   0.81629     0.70237    -0.03287     0.62778
Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop
H_ARREST                                 -0.96846    -0.97426    -0.30566    -0.42929
% homicides cleared by arrests
W_MALE                                   -0.95257    -0.88394     0.07312    -0.75282
White males in the population
NMFG_WRK                                  0.95593     0.88182    -0.03895     0.75034
Non-manufacturing workers (000)
GOV_WRK                                   0.95805     0.87931     0.00751     0.70977
Government workers (000)
H_EARN                                    0.91341     0.93651     0.23081     0.45366
Average hourly earnings
W_EARN                                    0.88815     0.92225     0.13128     0.50234
Average weekly earnings
YEAR                                      0.96748     0.90803    -0.02358     0.72167

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         4

                                Correlation Analysis

                    Pearson Correlation Coefficients  / N = 13

                                          GUN_LIC     GUN_REG    H_ARREST      W_MALE

HOMICIDE                                  0.72631     0.81629    -0.96846    -0.95257
Homicides per 100,000 of pop
POLICE                                    0.56853     0.70237    -0.97426    -0.88394
Full-time police per 100,000 pop
UNEMP                                    -0.16710    -0.03287    -0.30566     0.07312
% unemployed in the pop
MFG_WRK                                   0.69829     0.62778    -0.42929    -0.75282
Manufacturing workers (000)
GUN_LIC                                   1.00000     0.90380    -0.55485    -0.78368
Handgun licences per 100,000 pop
GUN_REG                                   0.90380     1.00000    -0.68316    -0.84584
Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop
H_ARREST                                 -0.55485    -0.68316     1.00000     0.89056
% homicides cleared by arrests
W_MALE                                   -0.78368    -0.84584     0.89056     1.00000
White males in the population
NMFG_WRK                                  0.78487     0.84329    -0.89160    -0.99426
Non-manufacturing workers (000)
GOV_WRK                                   0.80371     0.86243    -0.89344    -0.98857
Government workers (000)
H_EARN                                    0.42167     0.57352    -0.95743    -0.86675
Average hourly earnings
W_EARN                                    0.39101     0.55590    -0.93628    -0.86032
Average weekly earnings
YEAR                                      0.76628     0.83840    -0.91378    -0.99816

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         5

                                Correlation Analysis

                    Pearson Correlation Coefficients  / N = 13

                                         NMFG_WRK     GOV_WRK      H_EARN      W_EARN

HOMICIDE                                  0.95593     0.95805     0.91341     0.88815
Homicides per 100,000 of pop
POLICE                                    0.88182     0.87931     0.93651     0.92225
Full-time police per 100,000 pop
UNEMP                                    -0.03895     0.00751     0.23081     0.13128
% unemployed in the pop
MFG_WRK                                   0.75034     0.70977     0.45366     0.50234
Manufacturing workers (000)
GUN_LIC                                   0.78487     0.80371     0.42167     0.39101
Handgun licences per 100,000 pop
GUN_REG                                   0.84329     0.86243     0.57352     0.55590
Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop
H_ARREST                                 -0.89160    -0.89344    -0.95743    -0.93628
% homicides cleared by arrests
W_MALE                                   -0.99426    -0.98857    -0.86675    -0.86032
White males in the population
NMFG_WRK                                  1.00000     0.99004     0.86951     0.85557
Non-manufacturing workers (000)
GOV_WRK                                   0.99004     1.00000     0.85729     0.82643
Government workers (000)
H_EARN                                    0.86951     0.85729     1.00000     0.98276
Average hourly earnings
W_EARN                                    0.85557     0.82643     0.98276     1.00000
Average weekly earnings
YEAR                                      0.99456     0.98745     0.88841     0.88092

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         6

                                Correlation Analysis

                    Pearson Correlation Coefficients  / N = 13

                                             YEAR

HOMICIDE                                  0.96748
Homicides per 100,000 of pop
POLICE                                    0.90803
Full-time police per 100,000 pop
UNEMP                                    -0.02358
% unemployed in the pop
MFG_WRK                                   0.72167
Manufacturing workers (000)
GUN_LIC                                   0.76628
Handgun licences per 100,000 pop
GUN_REG                                   0.83840
Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop
H_ARREST                                 -0.91378
% homicides cleared by arrests
W_MALE                                   -0.99816
White males in the population
NMFG_WRK                                  0.99456
Non-manufacturing workers (000)
GOV_WRK                                   0.98745
Government workers (000)
H_EARN                                    0.88841
Average hourly earnings
W_EARN                                    0.88092
Average weekly earnings
YEAR                                      1.00000

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         7

      Plot of HOMICIDE*POLICE=YR.                 Plot of HOMICIDE*UNEMP=YR.

HOMICIDE |                                  HOMICIDE |
      60 +                                        60 +
         |                                           |
         |                          1                |            1
         |                    1   1                  |               11
         |                                           |
      40 +                                        40 +
         |                 1                         |              1
         |              9                            |       9
         |         8                                 |        8
         |                                           |
      20 +    7                                   20 +        7
         |   6                                       |       6
         |     5                                     |       5
         |   1 2                                     |         43   2      1
         |                                           |
       0 +                                         0 +
         --+--------+--------+--------+-             --+--------+--------+--------+-
          250      300      350      400               0        5       10       15

                      POLICE                             % unemployed in the pop

NOTE: 2 obs hidden.


     Plot of HOMICIDE*MFG_WRK=YR.                Plot of HOMICIDE*GUN_LIC=YR.

HOMICIDE |                                  HOMICIDE |
      60 +                                        60 +
         |                                           |
         |                    1                      |              1
         |              1 1                          |           1    1
         |                                           |
      40 +                                        40 +
         |                1                          |               1
         |                    9                      |                9
         |                   8                       |                     8
         |                                           |
      20 +                 7                      20 +             7
         |                   6                       |        6
         |                 5                         |      5
         |      1 2  3 4                             |    13
         |                                           |
       0 +                                         0 +
         --+--------+--------+--------+-             --+--------+--------+--------+-
          400      500      600      700               0       500     1000     1500

           Manufacturing workers (000)                           GUN_LIC

                                            NOTE: 2 obs hidden.

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         8

     Plot of HOMICIDE*GUN_REG=YR.                Plot of HOMICIDE*H_ARREST=YR.

HOMICIDE |                                  HOMICIDE |
      60 +                                        60 +
         |                                           |
         |             1                             |          1
         |               1   1                       |           11
         |                                           |
      40 +                                        40 +
         |              1                            |                1
         |               9                           |                   9
         |                    8                      |                      8
         |                                           |
      20 +            7                           20 +                       7
         |        6                                  |                      6
         |      5                                    |                        5
         |    21                                     |                       241
         |                                           |
       0 +                                         0 +
         --+--------+--------+--------+-             --+--------+--------+--------+-
           0       500     1000     1500              40       60       80       100

                     GUN_REG                          % homicides cleared by arrests

NOTE: 2 obs hidden.                         NOTE: 1 obs hidden.


      Plot of HOMICIDE*W_MALE=YR.                Plot of HOMICIDE*NMFG_WRK=YR.

HOMICIDE |                                  HOMICIDE |
      60 +                                        60 +
         |                                           |
         |      1                                    |                    1
         |        11                                 |                 11
         |                                           |
      40 +                                        40 +
         |          1                                |                 1
         |           9                               |                9
         |             8                             |              8
         |                                           |
      20 +              7                         20 +              7
         |                6                          |             6
         |                 5                         |           5
         |                   4 32 1                  |       12 4
         |                                           |
       0 +                                         0 +
         --+--------+--------+--------+-             --+--------+--------+--------+-
        300000   400000   500000  600000              400      600      800     1000

          White males in the population                          NMFG_WRK

                                            NOTE: 1 obs hidden.

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                         9

     Plot of HOMICIDE*GOV_WRK=YR.                 Plot of HOMICIDE*H_EARN=YR.

HOMICIDE |                                  HOMICIDE |
      60 +                                        60 +
         |                                           |
         |                        1                  |                          1
         |                        11                 |                     1  1
         |                                           |
      40 +                                        40 +
         |                       1                   |                 1
         |                     9                     |                9
         |                  8                        |      8
         |                                           |
      20 +                 7                      20 +            7
         |               6                           |           6
         |             5                             |          5
         |       1234                                |       123
         |                                           |
       0 +                                         0 +
         --+--------+--------+--------+-             -+-------------+-------------+-
          100      150      200      250              2             4             6

             Government workers (000)                    Average hourly earnings

                                            NOTE: 1 obs hidden.


      Plot of HOMICIDE*W_EARN=YR.

HOMICIDE |
      60 +
         |
         |                      1
         |               1    1
         |
      40 +
         |           1
         |           9
         |    8
         |
      20 +        7
         |        6
         |        5
         |  1  234
         |
       0 +
         -+-------------+-------------+-
         100           200           300

             Average weekly earnings

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                        10

Model: MODEL1
Dependent Variable: HOMICIDE   Homicides per 100,000 of pop

                                Analysis of Variance

                                   Sum of         Mean
          Source          DF      Squares       Square      F Value       Prob>F

          Model           11   3221.69980    292.88180     3258.874       0.0137
          Error            1      0.08987      0.08987
          C Total         12   3221.78968

              Root MSE       0.29979     R-square       1.0000
              Dep Mean      25.12692     Adj R-sq       0.9997
              C.V.           1.19309

                                 Parameter Estimates

                  Parameter      Standard    T for H0:                     Variance
 Variable  DF      Estimate         Error   Parameter=0    Prob > |T|     Inflation

 INTERCEP   1    -91.525694   31.84848803        -2.874        0.2132    0.00000000
 POLICE     1      0.024097    0.01054638         2.285        0.2626   32.54401319
 UNEMP      1      0.572489    0.19256088         2.973        0.2066   27.55609936
 MFG_WRK    1     -0.058597    0.01625916        -3.604        0.1723   87.61885196
 GUN_LIC    1      0.021369    0.00172143        12.414        0.0512   39.61397352
 GUN_REG    1     -0.003336    0.00127947        -2.607        0.2332   21.14579384
 H_ARREST   1     -0.082724    0.06161572        -1.343        0.4076   81.23699884
 W_MALE     1   0.000090045    0.00004012         2.244        0.2668  896.05610311
 NMFG_WRK   1      0.049643    0.01723305         2.881        0.2127  356.16678462
 GOV_WRK    1      0.181208    0.06083004         2.979        0.2062  677.71187761
 H_EARN     1     -6.096462    1.89185727        -3.222        0.1916  446.46735301
 W_EARN     1      0.305224    0.05236046         5.829        0.1082  661.56232242

               Variable
 Variable  DF     Label

 INTERCEP   1  Intercept
 POLICE     1  Full-time police per 100,000 pop
 UNEMP      1  % unemployed in the pop
 MFG_WRK    1  Manufacturing workers (000)
 GUN_LIC    1  Handgun licences per 100,000 pop
 GUN_REG    1  Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop
 H_ARREST   1  % homicides cleared by arrests
 W_MALE     1  White males in the population
 NMFG_WRK   1  Non-manufacturing workers (000)
 GOV_WRK    1  Government workers (000)
 H_EARN     1  Average hourly earnings
 W_EARN     1  Average weekly earnings

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                        11

                    Collinearity Diagnostics(intercept adjusted)

                       Condition  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop
  Number  Eigenvalue       Index  POLICE    UNEMP     MFG_WRK   GUN_LIC   GUN_REG

       1     8.03658     1.00000    0.0004    0.0000    0.0001    0.0002    0.0005
       2     1.91767     2.04715    0.0009    0.0081    0.0014    0.0011    0.0006
       3     0.80432     3.16097    0.0000    0.0085    0.0008    0.0088    0.0131
       4     0.10062     8.93698    0.0204    0.0479    0.0119    0.0198    0.2150
       5     0.06733    10.92557    0.1463    0.0451    0.0072    0.0809    0.1182
       6     0.03070    16.17954    0.0638    0.1472    0.1502    0.0010    0.0217
       7     0.01960    20.24943    0.4962    0.0086    0.0002    0.0307    0.0122
       8     0.01471    23.37579    0.1110    0.0032    0.0139    0.3814    0.0006
       9     0.00563    37.76605    0.0867    0.0280    0.0688    0.0363    0.1034
      10     0.00245    57.22731    0.0011    0.3961    0.1090    0.0362    0.0340
      11   0.0003899   143.55925    0.0732    0.3072    0.6366    0.4036    0.4806

          Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop
  Number  H_ARREST  W_MALE    NMFG_WRK  GOV_WRK   H_EARN    W_EARN

       1    0.0002    0.0000    0.0000    0.0000    0.0000    0.0000
       2    0.0004    0.0000    0.0000    0.0000    0.0001    0.0000
       3    0.0000    0.0000    0.0000    0.0000    0.0002    0.0003
       4    0.0001    0.0000    0.0012    0.0008    0.0001    0.0008
       5    0.0103    0.0000    0.0013    0.0010    0.0011    0.0000
       6    0.0006    0.0032    0.0000    0.0096    0.0048    0.0019
       7    0.3390    0.0004    0.0057    0.0019    0.0004    0.0027
       8    0.1547    0.0002    0.0002    0.0150    0.0274    0.0192
       9    0.0060    0.0641    0.0853    0.0181    0.1169    0.0173
      10    0.1698    0.0664    0.6264    0.0532    0.0278    0.0605
      11    0.3190    0.8656    0.2798    0.9004    0.8211    0.8973

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                        12

Model: MODEL1
Dependent Variable: HOMICIDE   Homicides per 100,000 of pop

                                Analysis of Variance

                                   Sum of         Mean
          Source          DF      Squares       Square      F Value       Prob>F

          Model            7   3219.86623    459.98089     1195.723       0.0001
          Error            5      1.92344      0.38469
          C Total         12   3221.78968

              Root MSE       0.62023     R-square       0.9994
              Dep Mean      25.12692     Adj R-sq       0.9986
              C.V.           2.46840

                                 Parameter Estimates

                  Parameter      Standard    T for H0:                     Variance
 Variable  DF      Estimate         Error   Parameter=0    Prob > |T|     Inflation

 INTERCEP   1    -22.863251   15.61706309        -1.464        0.2031    0.00000000
 POLICE     1      0.041112    0.02030634         2.025        0.0988   28.18664766
 UNEMP      1      1.041184    0.17070791         6.099        0.0017    5.05946558
 GUN_LIC    1      0.019017    0.00271558         7.003        0.0009   23.03098522
 GUN_REG    1      0.000636    0.00162725         0.391        0.7118    7.99080589
 H_ARREST   1     -0.211423    0.09707683        -2.178        0.0813   47.11049939
 EARN       1      0.300136    0.06127498         4.898        0.0045   55.30799884
 WORK       1      0.021166    0.01758096         1.204        0.2825   31.59438968

               Variable
 Variable  DF     Label

 INTERCEP   1  Intercept
 POLICE     1  Full-time police per 100,000 pop
 UNEMP      1  % unemployed in the pop
 GUN_LIC    1  Handgun licences per 100,000 pop
 GUN_REG    1  Handgun registrations per 100,000 pop
 H_ARREST   1  % homicides cleared by arrests
 EARN       1
 WORK       1

                          Predicting Detroit homicide rates                        13

                    Collinearity Diagnostics(intercept adjusted)

                       Condition  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop  Var Prop
  Number  Eigenvalue       Index  POLICE    UNEMP     GUN_LIC   GUN_REG   H_ARREST

       1     4.77085     1.00000    0.0014    0.0001    0.0011    0.0041    0.0008
       2     1.40695     1.84144    0.0015    0.0778    0.0048    0.0053    0.0010
       3     0.66245     2.68363    0.0005    0.0937    0.0150    0.0323    0.0005
       4     0.08536     7.47580    0.0000    0.0209    0.1403    0.8786    0.0066
       5     0.04705    10.06965    0.3540    0.3700    0.0330    0.0156    0.0001
       6     0.01802    16.26925    0.4404    0.2922    0.0234    0.0302    0.6640
       7     0.00931    22.63627    0.2022    0.1454    0.7823    0.0339    0.3271

          Var Prop  Var Prop
  Number  EARN      WORK

       1    0.0006    0.0012
       2    0.0007    0.0012
       3    0.0065    0.0012
       4    0.0052    0.0241
       5    0.0091    0.2535
       6    0.0001    0.3014
       7    0.9779    0.4173